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2Y Yields At Mid-March Highs Ahead Of Supply, PMIs and Powell Lunch

US TSYS
  • A grinding higher in Fed rate expectations has set the tone for the early morning session of a bear flattening after Biden and McCarthy expressed optimism for a debt ceiling deal but with no notable movement towards a resolution yet. Recent headlines flagging a Deere filing to sell $36bn of medium-term notes biased the space cheaper still although there has been some paring of most recent losses.
  • 2YY +6.9bp at 4.384%, 5YY +5.3bp at 3.815%, 10YY +2.7bp at 3.742% and 30YY +1.2bp at 3.978%. 2Y yield session highs of 4.4015% were highest since Mar 15 in early days of the regional bank fallout.
  • TYM3 trades 7+ ticks lower at 113-07+ off a recent low of 113-04+, breaching initial technical support from the Mar 15 low and opening 112-30 (61.8% retrace of Mar 2-24 rally).
  • Fedspeak: Logan ('23 voter) at 0900ET and Chair Powell NDC lunch at 1230ET
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg May (0830ET), S&P Global US mfg & service PMIs May prelim (0945ET), New home sales Apr (1000ET) and Richmond Fed mfg index May (1000ET).
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $42B 2Y Note auction (91282CHD6) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $35B 21 day CMB auction – 1130ET
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