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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US TSYS
Some trading desks are considering fading the broad Tsy curve steepening with 2Y10Y marking -43.248 high today (early May 2023 level) vs. -80.048 from just last week Wednesday. A couple exogenous factors to consider:
- First is the knock-on effect from weaker EGBs that has contributed to long end selling.
- Second is the short end bid partially tied to drop in crude prices (WTI -2.09 at 91.59) that in turn softened near-term rate hike projections: November at 20.7% vs. 24.8% this morning w/ implied rate change of +5.2bp to 5.379%, December cumulative of 10bp vs. 12bp earlier to 5.428%.
- While there are several macro FI/FX-driven factors to consider for weaker EGBs, it's the the latter that is likely to be more volatile factor with decent chance of crude spiking higher again, which would in turn underscore rate hike projections in Dec'24 to early 2024 -- a trigger that could see 2Y10Y curve reverse a large portion of steepening since last week.
Bbg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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