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Free AccessMNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY28.8 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI: More Good Data To Gain Inflation Confidence-Fed Minutes
Federal Reserve officials need additional signs that inflation is heading back toward their 2% target before considering any interest rate cuts, according to minutes from the central bank’s June meeting released Wednesday that showed increasing concern over signs of economic weakness.
“Participants affirmed that additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably back to 2%,” the minutes said.
“A number of participants remarked that monetary policy should stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness.”
Most FOMC members – but not all -- believe monetary policy is restrictive and helping to gradually cool the economy and lower inflation.
“The vast majority of participants assessed that growth in economic activity appeared to be gradually cooling, and most participants remarked that they viewed the current policy stance as restrictive,” the minutes said.
That does not mean officials are ready to let their guard down on inflation, the minutes showed.
“Several participants observed that, were inflation to persist at an elevated level or increase further, the target range for the federal funds rate might need to be raised,” the minutes said.
WEAKER DATA
Some weaker economic data and softer inflation in the last couple of months, alongside remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week that were viewed as dovish, appear to have put the prospect of a September rate cut back on the table for now.
The June Summary of Economic Projections saw upward revisions to the Fed's year-end inflation view, up to 2.8% from 2.6% for core PCE and to 2.6% from 2.4% for the headline figure.
The May PCE report showed core inflation figures dropping to 2.6%, the lowest since 2021.
Officials still expect a fairly smooth economic landing, with growth hovering around 2% for the foreseeable future and unemployment peaking at 4.2% next year.
“Participants observed that many labor market indicators pointed to a reduced degree of tightness in labor market conditions.”
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