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- We previously saw that the 2Y10Y yield curve inverted briefly in early November in Poland amid soaring ST rates with NBP surprising markets with aggressive hikes in its last two meetings.
- Historically, inverted yield curves have generally led to a moderate to significant recession in the next 6 to 24 months.
- Even though the 2Y10Y yield has been trading back into positive territory in the past two weeks, ST rates could start to rise if NBP surprises again at next week’s meeting (therefore inverting the yield curve again).
- Odds for a more aggressive hike (i.e. 75bps) have increased following the positive surprise in inflation yesterday.