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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
HUNGARY
- The NBH is expected to accelerate the pace of its tightening cycle next week (Nov 16), with most sell-side analysts pricing in a 30bps hike (vs. 15bps in the past two meetings).
- However, a 30bps hike is very likely priced in by the market, and therefore may not be enough to halt the recent HUF depreciation.
- We have seen that the selling pressure on CEE currencies has remained elevated despite central banks surprising the market with aggressive hikes (i.e. NBP and CNB).
- The HUF has been depreciating sharply against the major crosses ahead of the NBH meeting, down nearly 3% against the USD this week.
- Hence, as HUF weakness would continue to support inflation expectations (inflation: a 'public enemy'), it is likely that the NBH will also surprise the market on Tuesday, hiking by up to 60bps.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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