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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(H2) Continues to Fade

USDCAD TECHS

Corrective Bounce

US TSYS

10Y Real Yields Close To Mar’21 Highs

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30YY Topped 2% Briefly

US TSYS SUMMARY

Decent action for a no-data session, long end bounced from opening session lows with yield curves scaling back from highs.

  • Long end bounces back to steady after 30YY topped 2.0% (2.0041%) in late overnight trade, one year high. Some desks cited FX markets for initial move: 30Y bounced as US$ topped out vs. Yen -- yield curves paring gains as dollar coming off.
  • Sources reported some 5s30s steepener unwinds after basis topped 152.0 overnight (152.305 high) levels not seen since mid-2015. Appears some accts taking cue from last week's Treasury refunding extension in 10s-30s from $24B to $27B. 5s30s curve 147.025 after the bell.
  • Two-way midmorning flow saw better buying from fast$ and prop accts in intermediates, real$ buying 30s. Sporadic reports of variable annuity hedge/sales from insurance portfolios that has helped drive yield curves to multi-year highs, has grown quiet since last week's Tsy refunding.
  • Market has become more inured to Covid-related headline risk, more short-term, inter-day moves tied to vaccine efficacy and/or availability while mortality rates have moderated in developed countries.
  • Trump's impeachment trial Tuesday unlikely supporting factor in rates.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1bps at 0.1111%, 5-Yr is up 1.4bps at 0.4768%, 10-Yr is up 0.2bps at 1.1653%, and 30-Yr is down 2.3bps at 1.9478%.
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 | bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 | bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
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