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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RUSSIA
- Heading into CPI data this afternoon (1600BST) Markets seeming to be pricing in a more hawkish posturing from the CBR in the next 3-6 months.
- Pictured in the graphic we see spreads narrowing following the CBR's surprise 25bp hike to stabilise around +70bp until 31 March.
- Thereafter, we see a slight uptick to +86bp as the RUB weakened back above 76.00 vs the USD – possibly reflecting expectations for higher FX passthrough to inflation.
- The CBR's inability at accurately forecast CPI in the last few month has dented CBR credibility somewhat and undoubtedly contributed to higher second-round effects through elevated expectations.
- Today's CPI print exp at 5.8% y/y vs 5.7% prior & 0.6% m/m vs 0.8% prior is expected to mark cyclical peak in inflation, but another upside surprise beyond 6% may elicit a hawkish response from the market in anticipation of more decisive CBR action.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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