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4.60 Holds Firm in EUR/PLN, RSI Now Overbought

POLAND
  • Local rates seemingly more stable despite yesterday's bout of risk aversion across EM, diverging from CEE peer Hungary.
  • 10Y is now trading below 1.60, looking to break the uptrend held since 01 Feb.
  • EUR/PLN opens lower as the sticky 4.60 handle manages to hold amid pressure from rising UST yields and dovish commentary from Glapinski.
  • Bank Millenium economists expect price action to consolidate slightly in the short-term, having been hit by an 11-day losing streak – but see local Treasuries still trailing core markets, especially European ones.
  • EUR/PLN has now pushed into overbought territory on the RSI (73.50), with a close below the 70 mark being viewed as a bearish technical signal.
  • A close above the 4.60 handle would likely signal the resumption of the uptrend, however, but with the cross trading near YTD highs, scope for more upside may be limited in the short-term.
  • Intraday sup1: 4.5823, Sup2: 4.5691, Res1: 4.6039, Res2: 4.6166
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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