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45bp Of Fed Cuts In 2024 After PMIs Miss

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates hold a sizeable decline with the softer-than-expected PMIs digested amidst thin data docket and no notable recent changes seen in the annual retail sales revisions.
  • Cumulative cuts: 1bp May, 5bp Jun, 14bp Jul, 26bp Sep (from 22bp pre-PMIs), 33bp Nov and 45bp Dec (38bp pre-PMIs) – see table.
  • The softer price description in the press release added to a recent backdrop from soft data indicators. The Fed’s Beige Book last week noted “another frequent comment was that firms’ ability to pass cost increases on to consumers had weakened considerably in recent months, resulting in smaller profit margins” whilst the March ISM Services release saw a surprise slide in prices paid to 53.4 from 58.6 for its lowest since the pandemic.

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