MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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5-year swap spreads widen (but correction may not be imminent): (1/2)

GILTS
  • Just as in Europe there are divergences between moves in gilts and moves in swaps (particularly at the short-end).
  • Looking at the 5-year point, since the Budget on October 27, 5-year UK swaps have moved from around 1.20% to 1.28%, roughly 8bp higher. The 0.375% Oct-26 gilt yield has moved from 0.80% to 0.71%, roughly 9bp lower.
  • This means that the swap spread has widened from 40bp to 57bp over the past month or so, a 17bp difference.
  • The widening of the swap spread has coincided with the larger-than-expected reduction in gilt supply announced in the DMO remit following Budget.
  • Liquidity in gilts really is quite constrained at present, with the Bank of England the main buyer in town.
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