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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ECB
ECB hike pricing for the May 4th decision inches to a session high after Schnabel's comment that "data dependence means that 50 basis points are not off the table". But the move is on the order of about 1/3 of a basis point.
- Last week's ECB commentary didn't have much impact either.
- The lack of notable market reaction in conjunction with Schnabel's comments reminds that the focus is on the April prelim inflation prints on Friday, which has the potential to move the needle more decisively toward 50bp (around 33% probability now implied).
- MNI's ECB sources piece last Wednesday ("MNI SOURCES: ECB To Hold Rates At Peak Into 2024") pointed to a 25bp May hike but with an upside surprise to April inflation potentially tilting the argument towards 50bp - while ECB's Simkus told MNI earlier this month that a larger-than-expected upwards move in core inflation would be needed to justify another half-point hike.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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