January 08, 2025 07:51 GMT
STIR: 57bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through '25
STIR
GBP STIRs little changed to a touch more dovish given the tick away from yesterday’s lows in core global FI markets.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to 1bp more dovish across ’25 contracts. 57bp of cuts priced through year-end, with ~17bp of cuts priced for February, ~21bp of cuts priced through March and ~33bp of easing showing through May.
- SONIA futures little changed to +2.0. Dec lows still untested through SFIU7.
- Little of note on the UK data calendar today, meaning focus will be centred on the long end and U.S. data.
- There is a busier schedule tomorrow, with the BoE DMP, S&P-KPMG-REC report on jobs and comments from BoE’s Breeden due.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-25
4.521
-17.9
Mar-25
4.487
-21.3
May-25
4.371
-32.9
Jun-25
4.330
-37.0
Aug-25
4.238
-46.2
Sep-25
4.211
-49.0
Nov-25
4.153
-54.8
Dec-25
4.131
-56.9
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