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5s30s at interesting levels

GILTS

It is worth keeping an eye on 5s30s levels today which are at 92.0bps are challenging key levels after the recent break of the 200-day MA highlighted a medium-term bearish breakout.

  • The spread has since recovered from its lows and is testing the 200-day MA at 92.4bps. A clear break of the average and of 93.1bps, the 38.2% retracement of the Feb -Jun downleg would suggest scope for a stronger recovery.
  • From a bearish perspective, a failure at levels around the 200-day MA would instead signal scope for a return to recent lows of 80.5bps. A break here would resume the broader downtrend.
  • Supply for the UK today consists of 10-year 0.25% Jul-31 gilts and 40-year 0.50% Oct-61 gilts while the main data release is construction PMI due at 9:30BST.

Source: Bloomberg, MNI

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