MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

5Y Note Preview: Another Concession Required?

US TSYS/SUPPLY

Today's $55B 5Y Note (CUSIP: 91282CJN2) auction at 1300ET/1800UK - following on from the biggest 2Y auction tail since May - comes as 5s have been a key beneficiary of softer economic data and deepening Fed cut pricing.

  • The current prevailing when-issued yield (4.43% per BBG data) is nearly 50bp below October's high yield (which was the highest at auction since 2007), and just above August's auction.
  • The October 25th 5Y auction was the weakest of the year, tailing by 1.7bp on a high yield of 4.899% alongside poor peripheral statistics (the bid-cover of 2.36x and primary dealer takeup of 19.41% were respectively the lowest/highest of 2023).
  • Prior to October, September's sale traded through solidly (1.3bp), with August's "on the screws".
  • From a relative value perspective: 5s have been outperforming and are trading richer to the curve since the Oct 25th auction: the 2s-5s-10s is fly is last -45bp (vs -30bp a month ago); 2s-5s-7s is -49bp (vs -32bp a month ago). 2s5s had bull flattened to -47bp (going into the 2Y auction), vs -29bp going into 5Y auction day last month.
  • The 5-auction average bid-cover ratio is 2.51x, with average primary dealer takeup 14.03%/indirects 66.61%/directs 19.36%.


5-Auction AvgHigh yieldWhen-issued yieldTrade through (tail)High - Median SpreadBid-to-coverPrimary Dealer PercentIndirect PercentDirect PercentOffering Amount
4.429%4.426%-0.37.02.5114.03%66.61%19.36%46.6
25-Oct-234.899%4.882%-1.78.02.3619.41%61.51%19.08%52
27-Sep-234.659%4.672%1.36.02.5211.23%71.15%17.62%49
28-Aug-234.400%4.400%0.07.02.5413.83%67.92%18.25%46
25-Jul-234.170%4.166%-0.47.02.6013.49%64.38%22.13%43
27-Jun-234.019%4.012%-0.76.92.5212.21%68.10%19.69%43
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.