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STIR: 70bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through ’25 For First Time Since Mid-Dec

STIR
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Core global FI yields have edged lower after U.S. President Trump noted that he would rather not impose further tariffs on China.

  • This has generated light dovish moves in GBP STIRs at the open.
  • BoE-dated OIS now prices 70bp of cuts through year-end, with contracts little changed to 1bp more dovish vs. closing levels. Until yesterday, markets had not priced that degree of ’25 cuts since mid-December.
  • As little as ~36bp of cuts were priced over that horizon at one stage last week.
  • The market continues to price ~90% odds of a 25bp cut at next month’s meeting, with 42bp of cuts priced through May. We expect 25bp cuts at both of those decisions.
  • SONIA futures flat to +2.5.
  • Flash PMI data headlines the UK calendar today. The data may generate a larger than usual market reaction given downside risks to UK economic growth.

BoE Meeting

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Core global FI yields have edged lower after U.S. President Trump noted that he would rather not impose further tariffs on China.

  • This has generated light dovish moves in GBP STIRs at the open.
  • BoE-dated OIS now prices 70bp of cuts through year-end, with contracts little changed to 1bp more dovish vs. closing levels. Until yesterday, markets had not priced that degree of ’25 cuts since mid-December.
  • As little as ~36bp of cuts were priced over that horizon at one stage last week.
  • The market continues to price ~90% odds of a 25bp cut at next month’s meeting, with 42bp of cuts priced through May. We expect 25bp cuts at both of those decisions.
  • SONIA futures flat to +2.5.
  • Flash PMI data headlines the UK calendar today. The data may generate a larger than usual market reaction given downside risks to UK economic growth.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less