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A 50bps Rate Hike Discussion Wouldn't Be a Surprise

ECB
A few thoughts on those BBG/Reuters ECB exclusives this morning - firstly on headline rates - both pieces mentioned the ECB will be discussing the possibility of a 50bps hike this week. Not too surprising given some member's preference for more sizeable policy move:

  • Kazaks: ECB should consider an initial increase in rates above the planned quarter-point hike if there are signs that high inflation readings are feeding expectations.
  • Knot: refused to rule out a 50 basis point hike at its upcoming July meeting.
  • Holzmann: ECB should raise rates by 50bps in July
  • Simkus: ECB should consider raising interest rates by twice the planned amount next month if the inflation outlook deteriorates.
  • And the June meeting accounts: A number of members expressed an initial preference for keeping the door open for a larger hike at the July meeting.

Nonetheless, worth noting from our policy exclusive on Friday - a July 25bps move looks set in stone, with September more primed for larger rate moves: "Anything from 25- to 75-basis-point hikes could be on the table when the European Central Bank in September, though next week’s widely-expected 25-basis-point increase is now looking almost set in stone, Eurosystem sources told MNI."

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EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeFixed Income BulletsBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market News

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