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A$ Bonces Post CPI Beat, But Unable To Sustain 50-day EMA Break

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The BBDXY sits marginally lower, last near 1258.75, slightly off end NY levels from Tuesday. The main theme today has been the A$ bounce, which followed the stronger than expected Q1/Mar CPI prints.

  • AUD/USD was already on the front foot prior to the data, amid a positive equity backdrop. From around 0.6495 we got to 0.6530, but sit back slightly lower now (0.6515/20), which is still +0.45% higher, but sub the 50-day EMA (which sits just under today's highs).
  • Local yields have surged in Australia, while the RBA's Q2 inflation forecasts will be difficult to achieve without a steep step down (unlikely). AUD option activity was busy post the print, but has now subsided somewhat (around 18% of total activity today).
  • NZD/USD has been dragged higher by AUD, but at +0.20%, last in the 0.5940/45 region it has lagged the move. The AUD/NZD cross is to fresh highs back to June of last year, last near 1.0960/65. Earlier the NZ trade position moved back into surplus for March.
  • USD/JPY has drifted a touch higher, lagging AUD noticeably. The pair last near 154.85. Regional equities and US futures are higher, while a firmer yield backdrop in the US has also been helpful for the pair.
  • Later preliminary March US durable goods and April German Ifo survey print. The ECB’s Cipllone, Tuominen, McCaul, and Schnabel speak.
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The BBDXY sits marginally lower, last near 1258.75, slightly off end NY levels from Tuesday. The main theme today has been the A$ bounce, which followed the stronger than expected Q1/Mar CPI prints.

  • AUD/USD was already on the front foot prior to the data, amid a positive equity backdrop. From around 0.6495 we got to 0.6530, but sit back slightly lower now (0.6515/20), which is still +0.45% higher, but sub the 50-day EMA (which sits just under today's highs).
  • Local yields have surged in Australia, while the RBA's Q2 inflation forecasts will be difficult to achieve without a steep step down (unlikely). AUD option activity was busy post the print, but has now subsided somewhat (around 18% of total activity today).
  • NZD/USD has been dragged higher by AUD, but at +0.20%, last in the 0.5940/45 region it has lagged the move. The AUD/NZD cross is to fresh highs back to June of last year, last near 1.0960/65. Earlier the NZ trade position moved back into surplus for March.
  • USD/JPY has drifted a touch higher, lagging AUD noticeably. The pair last near 154.85. Regional equities and US futures are higher, while a firmer yield backdrop in the US has also been helpful for the pair.
  • Later preliminary March US durable goods and April German Ifo survey print. The ECB’s Cipllone, Tuominen, McCaul, and Schnabel speak.