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Free AccessA Calmer Tuesday
T-Notes +0-01 at 131-12+, hovering around late NY levels after going out near best levels of the day on Tuesday, as the contract stuck within the confines of Monday's range.
- The 3- to 5-Year sector of the curve led the rally, richening by ~3.5bp come the close. The long end saw some modest underperformance after struggling during the NY morning.
- Fedspeak from Chair Powell & NY Fed President Williams offered little new, bringing a more neutral to dovish tinge back to the fore after last week's hawkish FOMC read. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Daly ('21 voter) suggested that conditions re: tapering may be in place in late '21/early '22, while playing down the need to discuss benchmark interest rate moves at present. Elsewhere, Cleveland Fed President Mester ('22 voter) stressed the Fed is not in a place where it needs to dial back accommodation, while pointing to September as a time when the Fed may have more clarity re: the attainment of its goals.
- The latest round of 2-Year supply generated a 0.5bp tail, with dealer takedown moving higher, back in line with the recent average, while the cover ratio nudged lower, once again moving in line with its own recent average.
- J.P.Morgan's latest weekly client survey showed its "fewest net shorts in a month, though the survey shows positions remain somewhat widely held." A reminder that this survey only covers the direction of client positioning, not the size.
- STIR flow dominated on the day and was headlined by a 100K screen seller of EDH1.
- Flash PMIs will likely set the tone ahead of NY hours on Wednesday (with a particular focus on the Eurozone and UK releases). Fedspeak and 5-Year Tsy supply headlines the domestic docket in NY hours.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.