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A$ Can't Sustain +0.7000, RBA SoMP In Focus Today

AUD

Post the Asia close AUD/USD continued to push higher. The pair eventually got to the 0.7010/15 region, before we abruptly turned lower. We sit back at 0.6935 currently, still +0.10/0.15% for Thursday's session. The USD saw a broad rebound late in NY trade, which capped the A$ rally, as bond yields turned higher and equity sentiment softened. Major US indices finished close to 1% lower, while yields were +6/+7.5bps firmer across the board.

  • Today the main focus in AU markets will be the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy. The updated forecasts will be a focus point, particularly in terms of the trimmed mean, which wasn't mentioned in Tuesday's RBA policy statement.
  • RBA expectations shot higher post Tuesday's outcome, with futures for the July/August meetings now above ~4%. The has helped stabilize AU-US yield spreads, but we broadly remain within recent ranges.
  • In the commodity space, sentiment was better for Thursday, the Bloomberg base metals index up 1.79%, while the aggregate index was close to flat. Iron ore recovered back to the $124/ton level.
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