MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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A December Hike More Likely

POLAND
  • Poland and the Baltic states consider requesting talks under Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which any member nation may request consultations if it considers its territorial integrity, political independence or security is at risk (BBG).
  • In the past two months, selling pressure on PLN has remained elevated despite the recent aggressive hikes by the NBP.
  • In addition to several factors that could impact Polish risky assets in the near to medium term (ongoing dispute with EU, FX-loan settlements, rise in LT rates…), the inversion of the yield curve recently and the sharp upward retracement in short-term rates have increased the probability of a recession coming ahead.
  • With the Fed tapering and recession risks rising in some EM economies, risk Is skewed to the downside for PLN, recently trading at its lowest level since May 2020 against the USD.
  • This morning, NBP Glapinksi mentioned that a rate hike was likely for now, while NBP member Karnowski said that the central bank missed the right time to hike rates.
  • Next important data to watch will be core CPI coming out tomorrow (1pm London time), expected to accelerate to 4.5% in October (vs. 4.2% the previous month).
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