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A$ Dominates Post CPI Beat

FOREX

USD indices are slightly lower, but the main story today has been the AUD surge, with AUD/USD breaching 0.7100 (+0.80% for the session), and strongly outperforming on crosses. This came after the stronger than expected domestic inflation data.

  • The stronger inflation data, which was uniformly above market expectations, has pushed market pricing to a 25bps hike for the February meeting. One sell-side house reportedly sees risks of a 50bps move. Yield differentials have swung back in AUD's favor, the 2yr spread to -1.07bp, +15bps for the session. A$ bulls will eye August 11 2022 highs at 0.7137.
  • AUD/NZD is up around 1%, last near 1.0940, meeting resistance close to the simple 100-day MA (1.0956).
  • NZ inflation came in below RBNZ expectations, which has worked against the NZD and yield momentum for the currency. NZD/USD fell to 0.6467, but dips have been supported, last around 0.6485/90.
  • US equity futures are lower, led by weakness in the tech space, but this hasn't impact sentiment a great deal today. USD/JPY is slightly higher, last around 130.50. Kishida came across the wires with a number of headlines related to the BoJ but this hasn't impact sentiment. The PM stated specific monetary tools are for the BoJ to decide.
  • EUR/USD is around 1.0900 currently, slightly up on NY closing levels.
  • Looking ahead, the BoC decision is due, while in Germany the IFO prints.
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