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A$ Firms, VIX Back Sub 20%, CPI On Tap Locally

AUD

AUD/USD ended Tuesday's session the 3rd strongest performer within the G10 space, slightly shaded by NOK and NZD. The currency gained close to 0.9%, which leaves us at 0.6700/05 currently, near Tuesday session highs. Broad based USD weakness was evident through Tuesday, with the BBDXY ended 0.45% lower.

  • Other cross asset signals were muted, with US equities lower (SPX -0.16%), but closing comfortably above session lows. The US VIX continued its recent trend move lower, closing sub 20% for the first time since 8 March.
  • US yields were higher, led by the front end (2yr to 4.08%), but this didn't lend much support to the USD. Commodity indices rose, the aggregate index +0.59%, the base metals +0.65%.
  • From a technical standpoint, recent A$ gains are still considered corrective. Next upside resistance is at the 50-day EMA, which comes in at 0.6760.
  • On the data front today, Feb CPI prints. The market looks for a 7.2% y/y outcome, versus 7.4% prior. The range of estimates is 6.7% to 7.7%.
  • This is the last piece major domestic data the RBA will observe before next week's board meeting and was highlighted by Governor Lowe (along with business sentiment, jobs data, and retail sales) as key watch points.

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