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Inflation Momentum Ticks Up Despite Lower-than-expected Print

SWEDEN

Although Swedish inflation surprised consensus and the Riksbank to the downside in June, CPIF ex-energy momentum (measured as a 3m/3m SAAR) ticked up slightly to 2.2% (vs 1.6% prior).

  • The uptick in 3m/3m momentum comes as high readings in April and May offset the June figures.
  • However, the longer-term trend of seasonally adjusted underlying inflation remains favourable for the Riksbank, with the 6m annualised rate falling to 1.7% (vs 2.8% prior) and the 3m rate to 2.7% (vs 2.8% prior).
  • Following the release, analysts unsurprisingly tilt heavily towards a 25bps rate cut in August.
  • DNB have formally brought forward their call for the next cut to August (vs September previously).
  • Handelsbanken continue to look for a September cut for now but note the possibility of an upcoming change.

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