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Q1 Terms Of Trade Surge

AUD

AUD/USD is off intra-day highs of just under 0.7200, but is still outperforming within G10 FX.

  • AUD/USD dipped sub 0.7180 as China/HK equity sentiment have opened weaker. US equity futures are also off their highs.
  • Still, AUD/JPY is still up close to 0.30% on the day, last at 92.65.
  • The Caixin PMI was weaker than expected as well at 48.1, versus 49.0 expected, but showed sequential improvement on the previous 46.0 print. This hasn't had a lasting impact on sentiment though.
  • Earlier, Q1 GDP in Australia came in better than expected at 0.8%, versus 0.7% consensus. YoY growth was 3.3%, also better than expected but down from the strong Q4 pace of 4%.
  • Note that the Australian terms of trade rebounded strongly in the quarter, up close to 6%, see the chart below. We are now above the 2021 highs. This is no doubt supportive of the A$ from a valuation stand point.

Fig 1: Australian Terms of Trade Rebound Strongly In Q1


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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