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RBA Events Headline A Quiet Data Week Ahead

AUD

AUD/USD is tracking for a modestly weekly loss at this stage (-0.50%), as we move back into the low 0.7000 region. Locally, next week is dominated by RBA events.

  • On Tuesday, the RBA minutes are out. The central bank will also post a review of its yield target. Governor Lowe is scheduled to speak on the same day. The title of his speech is 'Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy'.
  • Governor Lowe will also appear on a panel discussion on Friday, which is on Central Banks and Inflation.
  • The data calendar is light, with the Westpac leading index out on Wednesday, while on Thursday preliminary PMI readings for June will print.
  • Offshore, besides broader risk gyrations, iron ore prices could be in focus for the AUD. As we noted earlier, the correlation with AUD and iron ore prices has been low of late, but that could change if prices continue to fall.
  • Iron ore has lost around 12% this week and is threatening to break below $120/tonne (which would be fresh YTD lows). We currently sit at $123 in terms of Singapore futures.
  • Rising China steel inventories point to a less that firm demand backdrop. This is at odds with China's increased focus on infrastructure investment, although this could be emerging with a lag.
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