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A$ Treading Water

AUD

AUD/USD was largely range bound post the Asia close. The pair couldn't get traction above 0.6930, but dips to 0.6880 were supported. We currently track at 0.6910, levels down slightly on this time yesterday. The 50-day MA remains close by at 0.6915. The domestic data calendar is quiet today, but there could be some spill over from NZ retail sales out later.

  • Cross asset signals were mixed overnight. Core yields continued to push higher, with the US 2yr close to fresh cyclical highs (+9bps to 3.39%), as US durable goods data was slightly better than expected.
  • The DXY once again struggled above 109.00 though, with yield moves in other markets generally matching or bettering US gains. This helped AUD/USD push back above 0.6900 late in NY trading.
  • Commodities remained firm in the energy space, but base metals were weaker, with the Bloomberg aggregate index off -0.50%. Iron ore edged a little higher to the $104-$105/tonne range.
  • Equities posted modest gains (+0.30% to +0.40%), and the VIX edged back under 23% into the close, with the 200 day MA at 24.80 capping upside pressure in this index for now.
  • AUD/JPY dips towards 94.20 were supported overnight and we now sit back at 94.70/75, close to yesterday's highs.
  • The AUD/NZD cross sits around 1.1165 currently, close to recent highs, and is outperforming the yield differential trend, see the chart below. Coming up is NZ retail sales volume data for Q2. The market consensus looks for a +1.7% gain, versus a -0.5% fall in Q1.

Fig 1: AUD/NZD Versus AU-NZ 2yr Swap Spread

Source: MNI/Market News/Bloomberg

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