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MNI Credit Weekly: Le Vendredi Noir
A Little Flatter On Wednesday
T-Notes open a little below their late NY levels to last trade +0-02 at 134-06+.
- To recap, Wednesday provided some twist flattening of the curve, with yields out to 10s little changed and 20+-Year paper richening by ~2.0bp. Yields backed away from session highs as the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting were released.
- The Minutes revealed that participants "generally judged that the Committee's standard of "substantial further progress" toward the maximum-employment and inflation goals had not yet been met, particularly with respect to labor market conditions, and that risks to the economic outlook remained."
- On tapering, "various participants commented that economic and financial conditions would likely warrant a reduction in coming months. Several others indicated, however, that a reduction in the pace of asset purchases was more likely to become appropriate early next year," with the more hesitant looking to uncertainty/worries surrounding the labour market and inflation.
- All in all, the minutes did little to dispel the idea of a taper announcement in Q421, but some of the caution evident and the required time re: communication may skew the perception of chances surrounding such an announcement towards the end of the year.
- Elsewhere, 20-Year Tsy supply stopped on the screws, with the cover ratio nudging above the recent averages as dealer takedown ticked further below its own recent averages.
- The latest monthly Australian labour market report headlines during Asia-Pac hours. Looking to Thursday's U.S. docket, weekly claims data, the latest Philly Fed survey and 30-Year TIPS supply will be eyed.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.