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A Little Off Best Levels; On Track For Largest Weekly Gain Since ‘11

AUSSIE BONDS

Aussie bonds have pushed higher over the Sydney session with little by way of overt macro headline catalysts evident, as the cash ACGB space played catch up to overnight session bid in futures, which stemmed from the well-documented miss in Eurozone and U.S. PMI readings, resulting in heightened recessionary worry.

  • The ACGB curve has bull steepened as a result, seeing yields run 12.5 to 17.0bp lower at typing with the belly leading the bid. YM and XM are 19.0 and 14.5 higher, respectively (overnight highs were not challenged), with bills running +8bp to +21bp through the reds, as the IR strip bull flattens.
  • STIR markets are pointing to virtually unchanged expectations for rate hikes in July (when compared to Thursday’s levels), with the IB strip pricing in ~44bp of tightening for that meeting. Rate hike expectations further out have however continued to decline, with a cumulative ~236bp of tightening now priced in for calendar ‘22 (down from >290bp at the beginning of the week), supporting the shorter end of the ACGB curve.
  • The AOFM issuance slate announced for next week looks light, with only A$600mn of ACGB Jun-51 on offer.
  • RBA Governor Lowe is scheduled to take part in a panel discussion later on Friday re: global monetary policy challenges (1230 BST).
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