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A Little Weaker Ahead Of Payrolls

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries have come off lows with early steepening reversing, though we remain well below Thursday's opening levels (let alone Tuesday's pre-Georgia election). The main event Friday is of course the Dec employment report though we also get a speech by Fed VC Clarida later in the session.

  • Positive headlines on COVID vaccine effectiveness against new variants, and Pres Trump pledging smooth transition, helped buoy risk appetite and weigh on Tsys overnight.
  • Curve mixed: the 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.1369%, 5-Yr is down 0.1bps at 0.4578%, 10-Yr is up 0.4bps at 1.083%, and 30-Yr is up 0.2bps at 1.8548%.
  • Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) down 3/32 at 136-27.5 (L: 136-23.5 / H: 136-29.5), unremarkable volumes.
  • Nonfarm payrolls at 0830ET. BBG Survey and Whisper = +50k, MNI Median = 0. We also get Nov wholesale trade at 1000ET and consumer credit at 1500ET.
  • Clarida's the only scheduled Fed speaker today; at 1100ET he'll discuss the economy and monetary policy (text and moderated Q&A).
  • No supply today. NY Fed buys ~$12.825B of Tsy 0Y-2.25Y Tsys.
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