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A Minor Firming In Fed Hike Expectations

STIR FUTURES
  • Implied Fed hikes firm slightly for meetings later in the year after payrolls. The 143bp for Sep takes it back to yesterday highs whilst the 199bp to year-end nudges 1bp higher and closes on the post May FOMC high of 202bps.
  • The reaction would probably have been even smaller if it hadn’t been for the weak ADP and ISM manufacturing employment in the past two days and could easily be unwound if the PMIs/ISM ahead disappoint.
  • Near-term meetings unsurprisingly keep 2x50bps locked in with 101bps for Jul.
  • Payrolls were broadly in line with expectations, with a beat for payrolls but disappointments for AHE and an unchanged unemployment rate (although those are partly offset by a calendar bias and solid prime-age participation respectively).

Source: Bloomberg

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