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A New Record Gap In Consumer Sentiment Measures

US
  • The resilience of the present situation figure in today’s Conf. Board survey for Feb (white line below) further opened the gap with preliminary U.Mich current economic conditions (yellow).
  • The Conf. Board survey tends to place more weight on the labor market whilst the U.Mich survey is more heavily impacted by inflation and broader business conditions.
  • Shown as U.Mich-Conf. Board, the gap (green line) is the largest negative print since the data began in the 1980s and would ordinarily imply a sizeable flattening in UST 2s10s from an already low 41bps (purple).

Source: Bloomberg

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