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A Notably Mixed Philly Fed Mfg Index As Prices Received And Six-Month Outlook Surge

US DATA
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing index was slightly weaker than expected in July as it only nudged up to -13.5 (cons -10) from -13.7.
  • The details were particularly mixed though. New orders fell further into negative (from -11.0 to -15.9, lowest since March) and shipments quickly reversed last month’s positive reading (from +9.9 to -12.5, lowest since April).
  • However, and supporting the initial claims-induced sell-off in fixed income, prices received jumped from 0.1 to 23.0 for its highest since January.
  • No let up in wage pressures per the special question: “Responses indicate a median expected increase of 3 to 4 percent for wages and of 4 to 5 percent for total compensation (wages plus benefits), both unchanged from April.”
  • Further going against the weaker current index (which shows on the screens) was the six-month ahead general activity index jumping from 12.7 to 29.1 for its highest since Aug’21. It comes as nearly 40% of firms expect activity to increase over six months (from 33%) and 11% expect a decrease (from 20%).

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