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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- We’re left with a labour market that was still drumming up very fast seasonally adjusted payrolls creation, even if Feb saw a notably smaller NSA gain than a year ago.
- However, judging by the household survey, it is starting to see increased labour supply help offset it and the prime-age participation rate has recovered to a peak shortly before the pandemic, prior to which last seen 2008.
- Further normalisation was evident back in the establishment survey in the downward revision and then subsequent further decline in average hours worked, back on a broadly downward trend closer to more typical pre-pandemic levels.
- That comes with a backdrop of AHE growth coming in softer than expected at 0.24% M/M (cons 0.3) with some downward revisions to the prior two months leaving a 3-month run rate of 3.5% annualized, from 4.8% in Dec and at its softest since early 2021.
- However, there was one caveat to this softer AHE figure as the non-supervisory measure, accounting for a significant circa 80% of private employees, increased a much stronger 0.46% M/M in a potential sign of sturdier underlying strength.
- Despite increased labour supply and softer (overall) wage growth, Powell’s prior openness to a 50bp hike kept the initial reaction limited to a 4bp drop from 38bp to 34bp for the March FOMC, before subsequent contagion fears from regional banking stresses have driven some sharp move to lows of 30bps (currently back at 33bps).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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