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A Rare Week With Both Initial And Continuing Claims Lower Than Expected

US DATA
  • Overshadowed by the surprisingly soft CPI report, jobless claims data offered the first week since early May with both initial and continuing claims coming in lower than expected.
  • Only being one week of a downward surprise, it leaves a trend of steady push higher in those claiming for unemployment insurance in a sign of a continued gradual rebalancing in the labor market.
  • Initial claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 222k (cons 235k) in the week to Jul 6 after a slightly upward revised 239k (initially 238k).
  • The four-week average fell from the prior week’s fresh recent high of 239k (highest since late Aug 2023) to 234k, still a notable upward trend from the 210k in April and recent low of 201k in Jan.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile fell to a seasonally adjusted 1852k (cons 1860k) in the week to Jul 6 after a slightly downward revised 1856k (initially 1858k).
  • It leaves a small pullback for continuing claims after they pushed to their highest since Nov 2021.

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