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A Summary Of FOMC Member Neutral Rate Estimates

FED
  • Coming ahead of next week’s FOMC decision, we summarise where FOMC members estimate the neutral rate to roughly sit.
  • Chair Powell has in the past been at pains to point out the long-run estimates shown in the SEP ranging from 2-3% are exactly that, a long-run estimate for the economy at full employment. We assume most members are talking about the longer-run rate as well.
  • The table shows the last time the estimates were publicly stated to the best of MNI's knowledge, plus most recent commentary around the rate outlook with respect to neutral rates.

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