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Needle Still Points South


Yields Bounce as Equities Make New Monthly Highs


Heading North


Bull Rally Accelerates


Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

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The impulse from the previously outlined China Evergrande news and the U.S. Tsy space has provided a modest bear steepening impulse in recent dealing, leaving YM -0.5 and XM -2.5 at typing, with the longer end of the cash ACGB curve running ~4bp cheaper on the day.

  • The cash ACGB 3-/10-Year yield spread has moved through the late June steeps, with the RBA anchoring the short end and the long end subjected to the broader global impulses. Technically, the latest round of steepening now targets the 38.2% retracement of the flattening move witnessed from Feb 26 to Aug 6 (119.3bp). A clear move above there would allow focus to switch to the zone that includes the 50% retracement of the same move (130.2bp) and the high witnessed on Jun 17 (130.3bp).
  • The previously outlined round of ACGB Nov '31 supply will be conducted at the top of the hour.