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A Typical Pre-US Payrolls Friday

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -0.5) are dealing little changed, with ranges narrow and volumes light, in a typical pre-US Non-Farm Payrolls Friday session.

  • Today, the local calendar will see Foreign Reserves data and RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s Fireside Chat at Australia’s Economic Outlook event at 1434 local time (watch here: https://rba.livecrowdevents.tv/SpeechbyAndrewHauserDeputyGovernor7June)
  • (AFR) The economy is still running too hot despite claims Australia is in a “per capita recession”, and analysts warn further slowing is needed before inflation can return to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2 to 3 per cent target range. (See link)
  • Cash ACGBs are 1bp richer to 1bp cheaper, with the 3/10 curve steeper and the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -7bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps lower.
  • The bills strip is little changed, with pricing +/- 1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-3bps softer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 9bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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