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A$ Underperforms Ahead Of Q4 CPI Data

AUD

AUDUSD struggled to hold above 66c during the European/NY sessions. It fell to a low of 0.6575 before recovering to around 0.6600 to be down 0.2%. It continues to hover around this level at 0.6604. The pair underperformed the G10 as US equities struggled. Today’s key Q4 CPI data is also creating uncertainty for the Aussie. The USD index fell 0.2%.

  • AUDUSD continues to be in a bearish trend. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial and key support is at 0.6526 while resistance is at 0.6626, 50-day EMA.
  • AUDNZD range traded through the European/NY sessions and is down 0.1% to 1.0767. AUDJPY is down only slightly to 97.45. AUDEUR fell 0.2% to 0.6088 and AUDGBP was little changed at 0.5200.
  • Equity markets were mixed with the S&P down 0.1% but the Euro stoxx up 0.5%. Oil prices were stronger with WTI up 1.3% to $77.76/bbl. Copper is 0.9% higher and iron ore is down to around $133/t.
  • Today Q4/December CPI data print, which will be a key input into the February 6 RBA decision. Bloomberg consensus is at 0.8% q/q and 4.3% y/y for Q4 headline with trimmed mean at 0.9% and 4.3%. The domestically-driven services and non-tradeables components will be important too.
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