A Wrightson ICAP note out today previewing......>

FED: A Wrightson ICAP note out today previewing the FOMC meeting makes the

following case for an IOER hike (note was published prior to today's EFFR

print): after enormous effort restoring rate market liquidity, the Fed would not

want to jeopardize that by making an unexpected move in funding costs. However,

since markets are pricing in a 50% chance of an IOER adjustment, the Fed is

likely to take advantage and oblige.

- They note: "If the Fed does not move today, there is a risk that market

conditions might force it to move on an intermeeting basis at some point in the

weeks ahead. Given how active this debate has been (on both sides) in recent

weeks, a tweak would hardly qualify as a true "surprise" this afternoon. A tweak

dictated by changes in market conditions at some point in the weeks ahead would

have the potential to be more disruptive."