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ABN AMRO: Might Be Hard For Fed To Push Back On Rate Hike Expectations

FED

ABN AMRO (whose Fed preview was published Tuesday, after MNI's was released) sees a taper of $15B/month (consensus) announced Wednesday, but starting at the beginning of December (out of consensus, which sees a November launch).

  • They see the Fed seeking to push back on rate hike expectations: "we continue to think there is a high bar for the Fed to row back on its signalling that the end of asset purchases would not be immediately followed by rate hikes".
  • That said, "just as ECB President Lagarde demonstrated last week, it might be difficult to do this with credibility at this stage, with markets likely awaiting a convincing turn-around in inflation dynamics before rate hike expectations unwind."
  • ABN is looking for hikes in early 2023, with the Fed looking through currently elevated inflation.
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