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ABN Amro Now Sees Jul and Sep Hikes, But "Window" Closed After That

ECB

ABN Amro pulls forward its ECB rate hike forecast given that "Governing Council members have been falling over each other to signal that a July rate hike is likely": they now see 25bp hikes in Jul and Sep (previously saw Sep and Dec).

  • They don't see further hikes beyond Sep though, "because we remain of the view that the window for rate hikes will close around the turn of the year. This mainly reflects that the hit to economic growth will increasingly become visible in the data and we expect a weak economic outlook for 2023. In addition, the Fed rate hike cycle will probably also come to an end around the end of the year, which will ease the downward pressure on the euro."
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