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Free AccessABNAmro, Commerzbank Still See 75bp Fed Hike In July
Commerzbank says regarding June's upside inflation surprise that "a look at the details is thus almost superfluous – ultimately, prices are rising strongly everywhere, both for services and for goods". They don't think inflation has peaked, and thus "the Fed still has some work to do".
- That will include a 75bp hike in July as a "done deal".
ABNAmro sees monthly headline inflation as "likely to fall back in the near term given the decline in a range of commodity prices, but the risks to core inflation look still to be to the upside, despite the cooling in demand indicators."
- Importantly they think the broader decline in commodity prices will both downwardly pressure headline inflation and "reduce the risk of expectations becoming unanchored".
- They continue to see the Fed hiking by 75bp in July, followed by 50bp in each of Sep and Nov, with 25bp in Dec and Feb.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.