Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Above consensus takes on July payrolls: Jefferies has the highest estimate among all analysts, seeing a +1.2mn NFP change. Close behind are Citi and Goldman Sachs, each of which sees +1.15mn jobs.
- Jefferies cite the end of supplemental insurance benefits in 25 states, and more favorable seasonal adjustments (vs the typical July seasonal decline).
- Citi also sees a "rather technical boost" from seasonal adjustment bringing the number well over 1mn. They also note that "since seasonal adjustments average to roughly zero over the year, this 'makes up' for weakness in other months and should in that sense be taken 'seriously' by Fed officials.
- Goldman sees continued economic re-opening combined with a decline in labor supply constraints boosting the headline jobs figure, with unemployment benefits winding down, and 2mn more youth job seekers in June/July. Also of note are a 150k boost from lower-than-usual end-of-year education layoffs. They, too, point to a lower nonfarm seasonal hurdle in July. Note they see the unemp rate falling to 5.5% (from 5.9%, consensus 5.7%).
Source: Goldman Sachs
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok