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Accounts Lean Into Market Pricing

ECB
  • Relatively few new details in the ECB accounts that weren't contained in March's policy statement - and accounts lean into market pricing that favours the June over April meeting as the first step in any easing process. Resultingly, little reaction across EUR, EGBs. EUR/USD holds just below first resistance at 100-dma of 1.0876.
  • Accounts seem to favour waiting until June before making key policy decision: "It was highlighted that, in addition to new staff projections, the Governing Council would have significantly more data and information by the June meeting, especially on wage dynamics. By contrast, the new information available in time for the April meeting would be much more limited, making it harder to be sufficiently confident about the sustainability of the disinflation process by then."
  • On the services prices gap: "The point was made that services inflation had also been higher than in a normal disinflation episode because wages had responded at a slower pace to the supply shock from energy prices. Given the price level gap between goods and services, it was at present not clear whether services prices would converge to goods prices or the other way round."
  • Full ECB accounts link here
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