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ACGB Curve Flattens, OIS Slightly Firmer Into Year-End

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +1 & XM +1.5) are richer today with what was a subdued trading session with little int he way of domestic drivers or data, as a results moves were largely tied to US tsys.

  • The ACGB curve has bull-flattened today, yields are 1-4bps lower, with the 10Y back below 4.30% for the first time this week.
  • The AU-US 10-year yield differential little changed today at+5bps.
  • The swap curve has bull-flattened with yields +/- 2bps
  • The bills strip has flattened, trading flat to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is a pricing 1-2bps firmer heading into year-end, with the first full cut not priced in until July 2025
  • Cross assets: Equities were higher today, led by financials & miners with commodity prices higher, the AUD was the top performing G10 currency after falling over 2% this week as the yen carry trade was unwound.
  • Looking ahead to next week, focus will be on Retail Sales & CPI on Wednesday.
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