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Free AccessActivity data disappoints broadly; may make Greene more likely to vote unch
- UK activity data appears to have missed across the board - headline GDP and services both 2 tenths lower than expected in M/M terms. IP saw an even bigger miss (falling -0.8%M/M vs -0.1%M/M consensus), with manufacturing falling -1.1%M/M (flat expected). Construction also weaker than expected.
- As we noted above, we still don't think this will change any votes in this meeting (possibly makes Greene a little more likely to vote for on hold - we assigned her a 60% subjective probability to voting for a 25bp hike yesterday).
- GBPUSD is down 20+ pips from above 1.2550 to below 1.2530 at writing.
- We might see another leg lower for GBP FX when SONIA markets open (similar to yesterday).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.