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Activity data disappoints broadly; may make Greene more likely to vote unch

UK DATA
  • UK activity data appears to have missed across the board - headline GDP and services both 2 tenths lower than expected in M/M terms. IP saw an even bigger miss (falling -0.8%M/M vs -0.1%M/M consensus), with manufacturing falling -1.1%M/M (flat expected). Construction also weaker than expected.
  • As we noted above, we still don't think this will change any votes in this meeting (possibly makes Greene a little more likely to vote for on hold - we assigned her a 60% subjective probability to voting for a 25bp hike yesterday).
  • GBPUSD is down 20+ pips from above 1.2550 to below 1.2530 at writing.
  • We might see another leg lower for GBP FX when SONIA markets open (similar to yesterday).
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