MNI CBRT WATCH: Rates Held, Sticky Services Inflation Cited

MNI (LONDON) - The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announced on Tuesday it is keeping its one-week repo auction rate unchanged at 50%, in line with market expectations, commenting on the decision that sticky services inflation, high inflation expectations, and geopolitical developments continue to feed price risks.

“The tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is observed, and inflation expectations converge to the projected forecast range,” the Monetary Policy Committee said, adding that the “monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation is foreseen.”

Indicators for the third quarter suggest that domestic demand continues to slow with a diminishing inflationary impact, but that while goods inflation is declining, improvement in services inflation is expected to lag, the MPC continued.

The CBRT raised its one-week repo auction rate from 8.5% in June 2023 to 50% by March 2024, since when it has held it steady while using other tools to drain lira liquidity and to prevent deposit rates from falling.

Market expectations are for a cut no sooner than in the fourth quarter, with some looking at November. Governor Fatih Karahan's tone has been consistently hawkish, and he has insisted that the CBRT will maintain a tight monetary stance until it sees a significant and sustained decline in monthly inflation and inflation expectations converge to forecasts. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: CBRT To Cut Rates From Q4- Ex-Treasury Official)

Average annual CPI inflation peaked at 75% in May, dipped to 71.6% in June, then fell faster than expected to 61.78% last month. The CBRT aims to reach a 5% inflation target in the medium term.