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Activity data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA

A big week for UK data will kick off a 7:00BST / 8:00CET with monthly activity data for February (including GDP, IP, servcices, construction and trade). Note that this comes ahead of labour market data tomorrow and inflation data on Wednesday, both of which are a bit more important to the market at present.

  • Consensus expects monthly GDP to come in at 0.2%M/M (0.9%3M/3M) with manufacturing, IP and construction all a tenth higher. Analysts are broadly split between a -0.1%M/M fall and a 0.4%M/M rise.
  • The February GDP data may be regarded as a bit too historical, largely covering activity before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the dominance of cost-of-living crisis headlines, which could well dampen sentiment in the months to come. For this reason, unless we get a hugely surprising number, it's unlikely to drive markets too much.
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