Free Trial

Activity data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA

UK monthly activity data for May is due for release at 7:00BST, with monthly GDP, services, IP, manufacturing production, construction and trade data all due for release.

  • Consensus looks for monthly GDP to come in marginally positive at 0.1%M/M but there is a real spread of expectations from very reputable forecasters. For example, JP Morgan looks for a +0.9%M/M print while Nomura expects a -0.3%M/M print.
  • IP and manufacturing production are both expected to flatline by consensus while services and construction see sluggish growth.
  • In terms of market reaction, Bailey did not rule out a greater than 25bp hike yesterday (although nowhere near endorsed the idea for the near-term either). With markets pricing in around an 75% probability of a 50bp hike in August at yesterday's close there appears to be some two-way, although there is more risk to market's pricing in a less aggressive curve going forward.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.