Activity data due at 7:00BST

UK activity data is due on the hour, ahead of tomorrow's labour market report, Wednesday's CPI print and Thursday's BOE policy announcement.

• The Bloomberg consensus sees monthly GDP at a modest +0.4% m/m expansion, following the -0.6% m/m contraction in September (recall that September saw the additional bank holiday for the Queen's funeral). This would see the 3m/3m average to remain contractive at -0.4%, down 0.1pp. However, there are a range of estimates broadly between +0.2% m/m and +0.5% m/m so there are marginal downside risks to the data.
• Looking at the components, industrial production is expected to come in flat following the +0.2% m/m September uptick which broke a three-month run of contractions. Both industrial and manufacturing production annualised rates should remain firmly negative, expected at at approx. -2.5% and -5.4% respectively. Following the September -0.8% m/m fall, the index of services is expected to see some recovery at +0.5% m/m, boosting the 3m/3m average to +0.8%.